KOLKATA/CHENNAI, May 4: Early trends from the Assembly Elections 2026 pointed toward major political shifts across several Indian states, with the BJP making aggressive gains in eastern India while actor politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) delivered a dramatic debut performance in Tamil Nadu.
According to Election Commission trends, the BJP surged ahead in West Bengal with leads in 109 seats, significantly ahead of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), which was leading in 63 constituencies. The saffron party was also comfortably ahead in Assam, strengthening its hold in the Northeast.
At the same time, Tamil Nadu witnessed one of the most unexpected developments of the election season as Vijay’s TVK stormed into the political arena, leading in 103 seats and emerging as the frontrunner in the state.
BJP Pushes Toward Historic Breakthrough in West Bengal
West Bengal remained the biggest battleground of Election 2026, with the BJP appearing closer than ever to forming a government in a state dominated for years by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the TMC.
The campaign in Bengal witnessed intense political confrontation, with allegations surrounding electoral rolls, polarisation, and accusations of rigging dominating public discourse. Security arrangements were unprecedented, with more than 2.5 lakh Central Armed Police Forces personnel deployed alongside state police to maintain order during polling and counting.
Tensions escalated outside several strongrooms where Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) were stored, as BJP and TMC workers held protests and counter-protests ahead of counting day.
Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari expressed confidence over the BJP’s prospects, asserting that the party was firmly on course to form the government. Adhikari, contesting from Nandigram while simultaneously challenging Mamata Banerjee in Bhabanipur, projected certainty over his own electoral success as well.
Political observers said the emerging trends, if sustained, could mark a defining moment in Bengal politics and deliver a significant victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party in a state that has remained elusive for the BJP despite rapid expansion over the past decade.
Himanta Biswa Sarma Leads NDA Surge in Assam
In neighbouring Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma appeared set for another decisive victory as the BJP-led alliance crossed the halfway mark comfortably in the 126-member Assembly.
The BJP was leading in 74 seats, while the Congress lagged behind with leads in only 23 constituencies. The results reflected continued public support for the NDA government in the state despite a fiercely contested campaign marked by heated rhetoric and intense political mobilisation.
The Assam outcome further strengthened the BJP’s growing dominance across eastern and northeastern India.
Vijay’s TVK Emerges as Tamil Nadu’s Biggest Surprise
Tamil Nadu delivered the most dramatic story of Election 2026, with actor Vijay’s TVK making a sensational political debut.
The party was ahead in 103 seats, putting it in position to emerge as the single-largest party in the 234-member Assembly. The AIADMK followed with leads in 67 seats, while the ruling DMK was pushed to third place with 38 leads.
The remarkable rise of TVK came despite controversy surrounding a tragic stampede during Vijay’s rally in September 2025 that claimed more than 40 lives. However, the actor’s popularity and anti-incumbency sentiment appeared to outweigh those concerns among voters.
Political analysts noted that Vijay’s rapid ascent could reshape Tamil Nadu politics and place him alongside iconic film personalities such as M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa, both of whom successfully transitioned from cinema to political leadership.
The trends suggested a major shift in voter preference and a possible end to the long-standing dominance of the DMK-AIADMK political structure in the state.
Congress Finds Relief in Kerala With Strong UDF Performance
While the Congress struggled in several states, Kerala provided a major morale boost for the party and the United Democratic Front (UDF).
The Congress-led alliance established a strong lead, indicating a possible return to power in the state. According to early trends, the Congress was ahead in 61 seats, while the CPI(M) led in 29 and the CPI in nine constituencies.
Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Sunny Joseph described the trends as a clear endorsement of the UDF and expressed confidence that the alliance would cross the 100-seat mark in the 140-member Assembly.
The outcome signaled a setback for the Left Democratic Front, which had governed the state in recent years and faced growing anti-incumbency pressure.
Tight Contest Continues in Puducherry
In Puducherry, the electoral battle remained closely contested. The Congress and BJP were tied with leads in two seats each, while the All India NR Congress was ahead in seven constituencies among the seats where trends were available.
The Union Territory continued to witness a fragmented political contest with alliances and smaller parties expected to play a decisive role in government formation.
Election 2026 Signals Major Political Realignment
The trends emerging from multiple states suggested a broader political realignment across India. The BJP’s advances in the east, Congress’ revival hopes in Kerala, and Vijay’s extraordinary rise in Tamil Nadu collectively pointed toward a rapidly changing political landscape.
As counting continued, all eyes remained on West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where the results could redefine regional politics and influence national political narratives ahead of future electoral battles.