NEW DELHI, Apr 29: Exit polls released on Wednesday indicate a strong electoral performance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam, while suggesting a closely fought contest in West Bengal. Meanwhile, regional trends point toward the return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and a likely comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala after a decade.
Pollsters also suggest that the NDA alliance, led by the All India N R Congress (AINRC), could retain control in Puducherry.
Assam: BJP Positioned for Comfortable Majority
In Assam, multiple agencies forecast a decisive mandate for the BJP-led alliance. Axis My India projected between 88 and 100 seats for the ruling coalition, far above the majority mark of 64 in the 126-member assembly.
Other surveys, including People’s Pulse and Matrize, echoed similar trends, indicating a clear advantage over the Congress-led bloc. The projections suggest that the BJP could consolidate its hold in the northeastern state.
Kerala: UDF Likely to Break Decade-Long Cycle
Exit polls in Kerala indicate a shift in voter sentiment, with the Congress-led UDF predicted to cross the majority threshold of 71 seats in the 140-member assembly.
While estimates vary, most agencies place the UDF ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), with minimal gains expected for the BJP-led NDA.
West Bengal: Diverging Predictions Signal Close Fight
In West Bengal, exit polls present mixed outcomes. Some surveys project the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) maintaining a lead, while others give the BJP an edge in the 294-seat assembly where 148 seats are required for a majority.
The contrasting forecasts underline the competitive nature of the contest between the TMC and BJP, making it one of the most closely watched battlegrounds.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Alliance Set to Retain Power
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is projected to secure a comfortable majority, crossing the 118-seat mark in the 234-member assembly.
Opposition alliances, including the AIADMK-BJP combine and the emerging Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), are expected to trail behind, according to most projections.
Puducherry: NDA Expected to Continue
In Puducherry, exit polls suggest the NDA could retain power with a majority in the 30-seat assembly, leaving the DMK-Congress alliance behind.
Voter Turnout and Polling Phases
Polling for the five assemblies took place in April, with Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu voting in a single phase. West Bengal conducted elections in two phases.
Several regions recorded historic voter turnout figures, reflecting strong public participation. Notably, West Bengal reported exceptionally high turnout in its first phase.
Political Stakes and Contest Dynamics
The BJP is aiming to retain governance in Assam and Puducherry, while the Congress seeks to regain ground in these regions. In Kerala, anti-incumbency appears to favour the UDF, whereas in Tamil Nadu, the DMK is attempting to hold off challenges from opposition alliances and newer entrants.
In West Bengal, the ruling TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, faces a stiff challenge from the BJP in a high-stakes electoral battle.
Counting Day Ahead
Votes for all five assemblies will be counted on May 4, which will ultimately determine whether the exit poll predictions align with actual results. Historically, exit polls in India have shown mixed accuracy, leaving room for surprises on counting day.