London: Gulf oil exports staged a strong recovery in June, rising by more than 3 million barrels per day from May to cross the 10 million bpd mark, as improved security and smoother shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz helped restore crude flows from the region. Despite the rebound, overall exports from the Gulf were still around 40 per cent lower than pre-war levels, highlighting the lingering impact of the conflict on one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Fresh cargo-tracking data showed that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran climbed sharply during the month, reversing the steep slowdown seen in May when tensions in the Gulf had disrupted tanker movement and left millions of barrels stranded.
According to energy analytics firm Kpler, exports from the five producers rose by more than 3.5 million barrels per day in June to 10.07 million bpd. Another tracking firm, Vortexa, placed June exports slightly higher at 10.2 million bpd, compared with around 7 million bpd in May. However, both estimates remained well below the 16.5 million bpd shipped in the same period last year, underlining that the region has not yet fully returned to normal supply conditions.
The recovery was led by the United Arab Emirates, which moved swiftly to clear crude volumes that had been stuck in the Gulf during the conflict period. By accelerating cargo movements and reopening export routes more effectively, the UAE enabled a significant amount of stranded oil to reach international buyers. This in turn helped major producers increase supply, easing concerns in the global oil market and pulling crude prices back towards pre-conflict levels.
Market participants said the turning point came after the June 17 agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at halting the conflict and restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The accord reduced immediate fears of renewed disruption in the narrow waterway, through which a major share of the world’s seaborne crude exports passes every day.
Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball said the post-agreement period saw a faster-than-expected clearance of crude that had accumulated in the Gulf due to delayed sailings and security concerns. Even after the June recovery, around 23 million barrels were still waiting to transit through Hormuz, showing that the system was still working through the backlog. At the height of the disruption in late April, floating storage in and around the strait had surged to about 96 million barrels, a sign of how severely tanker traffic had been affected.
The UAE posted the biggest jump among Gulf exporters. Data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG indicated that the country’s exports rose to between 3.7 million and 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May levels and the highest monthly volume on record. The sharp increase reflected both improved shipping confidence and aggressive efforts by Abu Dhabi to release cargoes that had been delayed during the crisis.
Shipping data also pointed to a visible recovery in tanker activity. Ship broker BRS reported that 98 tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz between June 22 and June 28, averaging around 14 vessels a day. This was the highest weekly traffic recorded since the conflict began. Of these, 47 were loaded tankers sailing out of the Gulf, while 41 ballast vessels entered the region to pick up fresh cargoes. Analysts said the return of empty tankers to Gulf loading ports suggested that shipowners were becoming more comfortable operating in the area again after weeks of heightened caution.
Saudi Arabia, the region’s largest oil exporter, also recorded a notable increase in June shipments. Kpler data showed that Saudi crude exports rose by 768,000 bpd to 4.52 million bpd during the month. Export volumes strengthened particularly towards the end of June, with weekly shipments averaging around 6.3 million bpd close to levels seen in January before the conflict disrupted regional trade patterns. Much of the increase was linked to higher loadings from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s main export terminal on the Gulf coast.
The return of higher Saudi and UAE exports played a crucial role in easing market nervousness. During the weeks of uncertainty, concerns over restricted flows through Hormuz had pushed prices higher and triggered fears of a prolonged supply crunch. As more crude reached the market in June and shipping bottlenecks began to clear, those fears receded, allowing oil prices to retreat from the peaks touched during the conflict.
Still, the rebound has not been evenly distributed across the Gulf. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE were able to mitigate part of the disruption by using alternative export routes, countries such as Iraq and Kuwait remained more exposed to the risks around Hormuz because they have limited bypass options. Saudi Arabia and the UAE diverted some crude through pipeline infrastructure that avoided the strait altogether, reducing their dependence on the vulnerable chokepoint. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also used a tanker shuttle arrangement to sustain flows and reduce delays. Iraq and Kuwait, however, lack comparable flexibility, leaving their exports more directly tied to conditions in the Gulf shipping lane.
This difference in infrastructure resilience was one of the defining features of the June recovery. Producers with access to pipelines, alternate terminals or advanced export logistics were able to ramp up shipments much faster once security conditions improved. Others continued to struggle with congestion, limited tanker availability and the after-effects of delayed cargoes.
The broader significance of the June rebound extends well beyond the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important oil transit routes in the world, carrying a substantial portion of global crude and condensate exports. Any disruption there has immediate consequences for international energy prices, freight rates, refinery planning and inflation expectations in major economies. The return of more than 10 million bpd in Gulf exports was therefore watched closely by traders, governments and consuming nations alike.
Analysts said the June data shows that while the Gulf supply system remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, it is also capable of a relatively swift operational recovery when shipping conditions stabilise. The rapid drawdown in floating storage, the return of outbound tanker traffic and the jump in UAE and Saudi exports all point to a market that is regaining confidence — though not yet back to full strength.
Oil prices reflected this cautious optimism. On Friday, benchmark crude prices were little changed as traders monitored diplomatic efforts to preserve calm between Washington and Tehran. Brent crude futures slipped by 8 cents, or 0.11 per cent, to $71.72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell by 22 cents, or 0.32 per cent, to $68.47 a barrel. Over the course of the week, both benchmarks were down about 0.3 per cent, indicating that the market had largely priced in the improvement in Gulf supply conditions but was still wary of fresh instability.
For now, the main question for the oil market is whether June’s recovery can be sustained through July and beyond. Much will depend on the durability of the US-Iran understanding, the willingness of tanker owners to keep returning to the region, and the pace at which the remaining backlog of Gulf crude is cleared. If shipping flows continue to normalise, exports could rise further in the coming weeks, narrowing the gap with pre-war levels. But any renewed military escalation or shipping threat in Hormuz could quickly reverse the gains.
The June export figures, therefore, offer both relief and warning. Relief, because Gulf producers have managed to restore a substantial portion of lost supply in a relatively short time, helping stabilise global oil markets. Warning, because even after a strong month-on-month recovery, exports remain dramatically below the levels seen before the conflict, showing how fragile energy flows can become when geopolitics and logistics collide in a region central to the world economy.
As the market enters the second half of the year, the Gulf’s export performance will remain a key barometer for oil price direction, supply security and broader geopolitical risk. June may have marked the beginning of a recovery, but it has not yet signalled a full return to normal.