India, Aug. 11: Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s proposed return to Dhaka in December 2026 could mark a major turning point in the country’s political landscape and have far reaching implications for its relationship with India.
Hasina, who has been living in New Delhi since leaving Bangladesh amid political upheaval in 2025, has announced her intention to return despite being sentenced to death in absentia by an International Crimes Tribunal over allegations linked to serious human rights violations during her tenure. Her declaration has intensified political tensions in Bangladesh and added another layer of complexity to ties between Dhaka and New Delhi.
The proposed return comes at a sensitive time for Bangladesh, where political divisions remain deep and competing forces continue to shape the country’s future. Hasina’s presence could potentially revive the Awami League’s political organisation and energise supporters who have remained loyal to the party during her absence.
At the same time, her return could trigger strong opposition from rival political groups, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), potentially leading to demonstrations, political confrontation and renewed uncertainty. How the authorities respond to her arrival and legal situation could have significant consequences for Bangladesh’s political stability.
For India, the issue presents a particularly delicate diplomatic challenge. New Delhi has historically maintained close relations with Hasina’s government, with cooperation expanding across areas such as border management, connectivity, trade, counterterrorism and regional security.
Her possible return could therefore place India in a difficult position as it seeks to preserve its longstanding interests while maintaining constructive relations with Bangladesh’s current political leadership.
The bilateral relationship extends well beyond domestic politics. India and Bangladesh share a long border and have strong economic, cultural and strategic links. Cooperation on cross-border connectivity, commerce, water resources, energy and security remains important to both countries.
The Rohingya refugee crisis is another major regional concern. Bangladesh continues to face humanitarian and security challenges associated with the large refugee population from Myanmar. Any political transition in Dhaka could influence Bangladesh’s approach to repatriation efforts and regional engagement involving India and Myanmar.
Climate change is also expected to remain an important area of cooperation. Both countries are vulnerable to rising sea levels, flooding, extreme weather and other environmental pressures. Greater coordination on disaster management, climate resilience and sustainable development could benefit communities on both sides of the border.
Hasina’s political comeback could also have implications for the wider strategic competition in South Asia. Bangladesh occupies a strategically important position in the Bay of Bengal and has developed economic and infrastructure links with several major powers, including China. India will therefore be closely watching any political developments that could affect the regional balance.
Domestically, a return by Hasina could provide an opportunity for the Awami League to reorganise after a period of political uncertainty. Her leadership could help consolidate the party and mobilise its supporters. However, rebuilding political legitimacy would remain a significant challenge amid allegations of rights violations and growing demands for institutional and electoral reforms.
The response of Bangladesh’s political institutions will be crucial. Any attempt to address past abuses, strengthen democratic institutions, improve electoral credibility and restore public confidence would require broad political participation and respect for the rule of law.
The coming months could consequently prove decisive for Bangladesh and its neighbours. Hasina’s proposed return is not simply a question of one former leader coming back to her country; it could influence Bangladesh’s internal political trajectory and the future direction of its relations with India.
For New Delhi, the priority will likely be to protect its strategic and economic interests while avoiding actions that could be perceived as interference in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs. The manner in which India manages this sensitive issue could have lasting consequences for one of its most important relationships in the neighbourhood.
The developments surrounding Hasina’s proposed return will therefore be closely watched across South Asia, particularly for their potential impact on political stability, bilateral cooperation, regional security and the broader balance of power in the Bay of Bengal.