NEW DELHI, May 15: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on May 26, a few days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.
According to the IMD, the projected date carries a model error margin of plus or minus four days, indicating the monsoon could advance earlier or slightly later than expected. The arrival over Kerala officially marks the beginning of the four-month southwest monsoon season across the country.
The weather office said atmospheric conditions are becoming favourable for further advancement of the rain-bearing system over parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours.
The monsoon gradually moves northward after reaching Kerala, bringing widespread rainfall and respite from prolonged heatwave conditions in several regions.
India receives nearly 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season, making it crucial for agriculture, water reservoirs, hydropower generation and the overall economy.
Despite the expected early arrival, the IMD has projected below-normal rainfall for the season. The department estimated monsoon rainfall at around 80 cm against the long-period average of 87 cm recorded between 1971 and 2020.
Meteorologists attributed the likely rainfall deficit to the developing El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are generally associated with weaker monsoon activity over India.
In its earlier monthly outlook released on May 1, the IMD had noted that ENSO-neutral conditions were gradually transitioning towards .