New Delhi: With geopolitical strain intensifying between Iran and the United States, India has begun assessing measures to safeguard its crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in case of disruptions in West Asia.
Tehran has signalled the possibility of temporarily restricting movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor that handles nearly 20% of global crude trade. Any impediment along this narrow channel linking the Gulf to international waters could affect shipments bound for India from major suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.
India meets about 90% of its crude demand roughly 5.5 million barrels per day through imports, with over 40% sourced from West Asia via this route.
Alternative Supply Routes Under Review
Officials indicated that in the event of a blockade, India could rely partly on infrastructure that bypasses Hormuz. These include the 360-km Habshan–Fujairah pipeline operated by Adnoc, capable of transporting 1.5 million barrels per day, and the 1,200-km East-West crude pipeline managed by Aramco, which connects to the Red Sea and has a capacity of 5 million barrels per day.
Over the past three years, nearly one-third of India’s crude purchases came from Russia, though recent data show a moderation in volumes. Imports from Saudi Arabia have risen to a six-year high this month, reflecting ongoing diversification efforts. Officials also noted that India’s strategic petroleum reserves could cover consumption for up to 74 days.
Price Volatility a Key Concern
Energy analysts caution that price spikes pose a greater risk than physical shortages. Energy expert Narendra Taneja said global benchmarks could surge if tensions escalate. Prashant Vasisht of rating agency ICRA estimated that every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices would inflate India’s annual import bill by $13–14 billion.
However, experts believe a prolonged closure of the Strait may be unlikely, given the strategic and economic stakes for global energy markets.
The government continues to monitor developments closely as part of its broader strategy to strengthen supply resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty.