TEL AVIV, October 26: Relations between India and Israel are expected to remain strong regardless of the outcome of the upcoming Israeli elections, supported by expanding defence and technology cooperation and the close personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli author and political analyst Alec Pollard has said.
Speaking to PTI Videos, Pollard said the bilateral partnership enjoyed considerable importance in Israel and was unlikely to be significantly affected by a change in government.
“Whoever wins the election, Israel and India will continue to be good friends and to be close,” he said, adding that a new administration could introduce a different dimension to the relationship depending on its leader’s ability to establish a strong working relationship with Modi.
The Israeli elections, scheduled for Tuesday, are expected to be closely contested, with Netanyahu facing criticism over the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men and concerns about Israel’s growing international isolation.
October 7 Attack Remains Central to Election Debate
Pollard identified the Hamas led attack on October 7 as one of the most consequential issues confronting Netanyahu during the election campaign. The attack exposed serious weaknesses in Israel’s security and intelligence systems and triggered a prolonged conflict in Gaza.
Netanyahu has faced criticism from political opponents and sections of the public over his government’s failure to prevent the assault. The controversy has also fuelled demands for accountability and a thorough investigation into the circumstances that allowed the attack to take place.
According to Pollard, Netanyahu has sought to shift responsibility towards the security and intelligence establishment as well as political rivals, while highlighting Israel’s subsequent military achievements.
“Netanyahu has been trying to sort of offload that blame onto the security establishment, onto the intelligence establishment, even his political rivals,” Pollard said.
He added that the prime minister had also emphasised military successes achieved since the attack in an effort to strengthen his political position.
The central question, Pollard suggested, is whether voters will accept Netanyahu’s account of the events and his handling of the subsequent conflict. Public perceptions of the security failure could prove significant in determining the election outcome.
Military Service Exemptions Fuel Political Tensions
Another major issue is the long-running debate over compulsory military service, particularly exemptions granted to many members of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community.
Critics argue that the exemptions place an unequal burden on other sections of Israeli society, particularly reservists who have faced repeated deployments during the conflict.
Pollard said equal participation in military service had become an important electoral issue, with opponents of the exemptions questioning whether those who do not serve should continue to receive the same state benefits.
The issue is politically sensitive because ultra-Orthodox parties form an important part of Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Changes to the existing arrangements could therefore affect both coalition stability and the government’s ability to maintain parliamentary support.
The debate also reflects broader disagreements over the distribution of responsibilities and public resources within Israeli society.
Inquiry into Security Failure and Judicial Reforms
Pollard said the question of establishing a national commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack remained another significant issue for voters.
Supporters of an independent inquiry argue that a comprehensive investigation is necessary to establish responsibility, identify institutional shortcomings and recommend measures to prevent similar failures in the future.
The timing, scope and independence of such an investigation have become part of the wider political dispute surrounding accountability for the attack.
Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms have also contributed to divisions within Israel. Critics have argued that the changes could weaken judicial independence and undermine institutional checks on executive authority, while supporters have defended the need to alter the balance between elected officials and the judiciary.
These controversies have contributed to a political environment in which questions of governance, security and institutional accountability are closely intertwined.
International Isolation Adds to Netanyahu’s Challenges
Israel’s standing internationally is another factor shaping the political debate.
Pollard said Netanyahu had presented himself as a leader willing to withstand external pressure while pursuing what he considers Israel’s national security interests.
However, opposition figures have argued that policies supported by members of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition have contributed to Israel’s diplomatic difficulties and strained relations with parts of the international community.
The conflict in Gaza has intensified international scrutiny of Israeli military operations and government policy, adding to the challenges facing the country’s leadership.
The election could therefore influence how Israel approaches diplomatic engagement and relations with international partners, although Pollard suggested that the outcome would not fundamentally alter its relationship with India.
Gaza Policy Unlikely to Undergo a Major Shift
Pollard also expressed the view that the election result would not necessarily lead to a major change in Israel’s approach to Gaza.
He argued that Israel could not return to the security arrangements that existed before the October 7 attack, reflecting the continuing importance of preventing future attacks and addressing concerns over Hamas’s military capabilities.
The ceasefire framework associated with US President Donald Trump included provisions for the return of hostages and the disarmament of Hamas. Pollard noted that, although the hostages had been returned, the disarmament commitment remained unfulfilled.
“There was a ceasefire deal with US President Trump, which said that the hostages will be returned. That did happen, and Hamas will disarm. That did not happen,” he said.
He added that, from Israel’s perspective, the unresolved security questions meant the conflict could not be considered fully over.
The future of Gaza, the implementation of ceasefire commitments and arrangements intended to prevent renewed violence are therefore likely to remain important challenges for Israel’s next government.
Defence and Technology Cooperation Anchor India-Israel Relations
Despite the uncertainties surrounding Israeli domestic politics, Pollard expressed confidence that relations with India would remain close.
Defence cooperation has long been a significant component of the bilateral relationship, with the two countries working together on military equipment, surveillance capabilities, missile systems and other security-related technologies.
Technology has also become an important area of engagement, with opportunities for collaboration in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, agriculture, water management and innovation.
The two countries have developed commercial and strategic links that extend beyond their respective political leaderships. These institutional and economic connections could help maintain continuity if Israel experiences a change of government.
However, Pollard noted that personal relations between national leaders could influence the direction and pace of cooperation. A successor to Netanyahu would need to establish a productive relationship with Modi to sustain the same level of political engagement.
A change in leadership could therefore alter the tone or priorities of bilateral diplomacy without necessarily undermining the underlying partnership.
Continuity Expected Amid Israeli Political Uncertainty
The Israeli election will take place against a backdrop of security concerns, domestic political divisions and continuing international scrutiny over the Gaza conflict.
Netanyahu’s record on the October 7 attack, the military service debate, judicial reforms and the country’s diplomatic position are expected to remain important considerations for voters.
At the same time, the broader strategic relationship with India appears likely to retain bipartisan relevance because of shared interests in defence, technology and economic cooperation.
Pollard’s assessment suggests that the most immediate effect of the election may be a change in the political approach or leadership style rather than a fundamental shift in bilateral relations.
For India, the composition of Israel’s next government will remain relevant to future diplomatic engagement and strategic cooperation. The relationship’s long-term direction will depend on how both governments manage regional security concerns, economic opportunities and evolving international circumstances.
While the election could reshape Israel’s domestic political landscape, Pollard expects the partnership with India to remain an important and enduring element of the country’s foreign relations.