Washington, Dec 13: As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, European allies are moving beyond emergency military assistance toward long-term defence industrial partnerships, a shift that is also accelerating efforts to diversify global defence supply chains away from China, with India increasingly cited as part of the strategic conversation, officials and experts said.
Testifying before the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe on Thursday, witnesses highlighted the so called “Danish model”, pioneered by Denmark, which channels foreign funding directly into Ukraine’s domestic defence industry rather than relying primarily on stockpile donations or third-country procurement.
“From a Danish perspective, strengthening our own defence and supporting Ukraine is not mutually exclusive, but part of the same solution to strengthen European defence and security,” said Major General Karsten F. Jensen, Danish Defence Attaché to the United States.
Jensen said the model allows donor countries to fund Ukrainian manufacturers based on real-time battlefield requirements. “Through the model, Denmark donates directly to the Ukrainian defence industry instead of relying solely on purchasing military equipment from third countries or donating from national stockpiles,” he said.
He added that a pilot project under the framework delivered 18 artillery systems, ordered in July 2024 and made battle-ready by September the same year. Denmark contributed about $627 million through the model in 2024, with funding expected to rise to nearly $2 billion in 2025.
European defence policy expert Sophia Besch said the continent is transitioning from crisis management to long-term strategy. “What began in 2022 as a set of reactive crisis instruments is now starting to evolve into something more strategic,” she said, describing a rearmed Ukraine as Europe’s “first line of defence” against Russia.
Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former adviser to the Ukrainian government, said Ukraine’s defence production capacity has expanded dramatically but remains underfunded. She noted that annual capacity surged from roughly $1 billion in 2022 to more than $35 billion by mid-2025, while Kyiv could afford to procure only about $6 billion worth of equipment in early 2024.
Bondar said the conflict has exposed deep vulnerabilities in defence supply chains, particularly dependence on Chinese components, especially in drone production. “Russians and Ukrainians are eating from the same bucket,” she said, adding that diversification efforts are now underway, “including India.”
She also warned that geopolitical rivals are closely studying the conflict. “China is learning from Russia,” Bondar said, referring to lessons Beijing may be drawing from Moscow’s wartime experience. She also pointed to recent India–Russia defence engagements as part of the evolving strategic landscape.
Speakers stressed that defence industrial cooperation will be central not only to sustaining Ukraine’s war effort but also to shaping any future peace settlement. “Industrial cooperation is a foundation for any sustainable peace,” Besch said, arguing that credible deterrence depends on predictable and scalable production capacity.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NATO allies have been forced to reassess defence spending, industrial readiness and supply chain resilience, with Ukraine increasingly viewed as a forward pillar of European security rather than merely a recipient of military aid.