NEW DELHI, Oct 19: Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could significantly change the protein composition of wheat, potentially affecting the quality of baked products and the presence of proteins associated with wheat-related health concerns, according to a new study published in the journal Food Chemistry.
The research, led by scientists at the Leibniz Institute for Food Systems Biology at the Technical University of Munich in Germany, highlights the need to consider nutritional and functional grain quality alongside crop yields when developing wheat varieties suited to a changing climate.
The researchers noted that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased from approximately 340 parts per million in 1980 to around 425 parts per million in 2024. Levels could approach 600 parts per million by 2050, exposing future wheat crops to substantially different growing conditions.
To investigate the potential effects, the team cultivated ten varieties of winter wheat under realistic environmental conditions. Some plants were grown at an elevated carbon dioxide concentration of 546 parts per million, while others were exposed to present-day levels.
Following the harvest, scientists examined the grain samples using a high-resolution mass spectrometry technique developed by the research team. Their analysis focused on several protein groups, including amylase/trypsin inhibitors (ATIs), puroindolines, gluten proteins and peptides associated with coeliac disease.
The findings revealed that elevated carbon dioxide concentrations changed the relative abundance of several proteins in wheat grains. ATI levels increased, while the concentrations of puroindolines, gluten proteins and certain peptides associated with coeliac disease decreased.
The researchers stressed that the magnitude of these changes varied considerably between wheat varieties, suggesting that the genetic characteristics of individual cultivars could influence how they respond to changing atmospheric conditions.
One important finding concerned baking performance. The reduction in gluten proteins was associated with poorer baking quality, indicating that rising carbon dioxide levels could affect the functional properties of wheat flour used in bread and other baked products.
Gluten proteins contribute to the elasticity and structure of dough, helping it retain gas during fermentation and develop the desired texture during baking. Changes in their composition can therefore influence the suitability of wheat for particular food products.
The study also drew attention to the increase in ATIs, a group of proteins that have been investigated for their potential effects on human health. Although these proteins may be relevant to certain wheat-related sensitivities, the researchers cautioned that the biological significance of the observed changes requires further investigation.
Sabrina Geisslitz, the study’s principal investigator and a research associate at the Leibniz Institute, said the extent of the protein changes depended largely on the wheat cultivar.
Katharina Scherf, who heads the institute’s food biopolymer chemistry research group and is a professor at the TUM School of Life Sciences, said the changes in ATIs and certain coeliac disease-associated peptides could have implications for wheat-related health conditions over the longer term. However, she emphasised that additional research is necessary to establish their actual biological and immunological effects.
The researchers cautioned against drawing immediate conclusions about the health consequences of the findings. Changes in protein concentrations alone do not establish whether wheat products will become more or less tolerable for people with particular conditions.
The results instead point to the need for more detailed studies examining how climate-related changes in grain composition influence digestion, immune responses and food processing.
The research also underlines the importance of crop-breeding strategies that account for multiple characteristics rather than focusing exclusively on agricultural productivity.
As climate change places increasing pressure on global food systems, plant breeders face the challenge of developing wheat varieties that can maintain reliable yields while preserving nutritional value and desirable processing properties.
According to the researchers, identifying cultivars that retain good baking performance while containing lower levels of potentially problematic proteins could become an important objective in future wheat improvement programmes.
Such efforts may require combining conventional breeding approaches with advanced analytical methods capable of identifying subtle differences in grain composition. Evaluating varieties under elevated carbon dioxide conditions could also help researchers determine which genetic traits contribute to greater stability in wheat quality.
The findings highlight a broader challenge for climate adaptation in agriculture: environmental changes can influence not only how much food crops produce but also the characteristics of the food harvested.
Wheat remains a major staple worldwide, supplying a substantial share of the calories and protein consumed by populations across different regions. Any climate-related changes in its composition could therefore have implications for food manufacturers, farmers and agricultural research institutions.
The authors concluded that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may alter wheat protein composition and grain quality, making it important to identify varieties capable of maintaining desirable characteristics under future growing conditions.
Further research will be needed to establish how consistently these changes occur across different wheat varieties and environments, and whether the observed protein shifts translate into measurable effects on food quality or human health.
The study adds to the growing body of research examining how climate change may reshape the nutritional and functional properties of staple crops, reinforcing the need for agricultural strategies that protect both food production and quality.