WASHINGTON, Sept 10: India is estimated to have an arsenal of around 190 nuclear warheads, including additional warheads intended for new missiles currently under production, according to an assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
The US-based nonprofit policy think tank based its estimate on an analysis of open-source information, government-originating data and commercial satellite imagery.
In its report, India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026, FAS Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen estimated that India may have produced around 190 warheads based on publicly available information about the country’s nuclear-capable delivery systems and strategy.
The assessment said more than 160 warheads are associated with operational launchers, while additional warheads are being prepared for new missile systems under development or production.
FAS noted that India has continued to modernise its nuclear forces, with several new systems introduced in recent years and others under development. These programmes are intended to complement or eventually replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery platforms and sea-based systems.
The report cited estimates from the International Panel on Fissile Materials indicating that India had produced approximately 730 kg, with an uncertainty range of about 170 kg, of weapon-grade plutonium by the beginning of 2026.
Assuming roughly four kg of plutonium is required for each warhead, the available material could theoretically support the production of between 140 and 225 warheads, the report said.
However, FAS cautioned that the estimate involves significant uncertainties, particularly regarding the designs of India’s nuclear warheads and how much plutonium has actually been converted into assembled weapons.
The report noted that India’s 1998 nuclear tests provided reliable validation of a fission design, while the country’s progress in boosted-fission and thermonuclear weapon designs remains difficult to assess from publicly available information.
It also said India is unlikely to have used all its available plutonium for assembled weapons and may retain some material as a reserve.
According to the assessment, the overall size of the stockpile is also influenced by the number and types of delivery systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons. It is considered unlikely that India would manufacture substantially more warheads than its operational and developing launch platforms could accommodate.
India maintains a policy of credible minimum deterrence and has reiterated its commitment to the no-first-use doctrine, which it adopted following the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998.