Jammu, 08-09-2024: Wrestling champion Vinesh Phogat has made a significant shift from the wrestling arena to the political stage, causing a stir within the BJP camp as she joined the Congress party. Upon her joining, Congress immediately declared her their candidate from the Julana assembly seat in Haryana, although she was initially offered a choice of three seats. Ultimately, her candidacy was solidified for Julana, which holds personal significance as it is her in-laws’ hometown. Speculation had been building that Congress would offer her the Julana seat, as it is one of her preferred choices, and this decision has now become official.
The Julana seat carries substantial political weight, and this report delves into the electoral equations and historical significance of the constituency. Vinesh Phogat’s entry into politics comes just as the assembly elections approach, positioning her first major contest in a tough electoral landscape. Her name has been widely discussed, especially due to the allegations of harassment made by women wrestlers, including Phogat herself, against BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, the former president of the Indian Wrestling Federation. These accusations led to high-profile protests at Jantar Mantar in Delhi, led by Phogat and other female wrestlers. Congress has struggled in the Julana seat for several elections, and the party hopes that Phogat’s candidacy will turn the tide after years of defeats.
In the 2019 assembly elections, Congress fared poorly, finishing third in Julana. The contest was mainly between the JJP’s Amarjeet Dhanda, who won with a significant margin, and BJP’s Parminder Singh Dhull, who came in second. Dhanda secured over 61,000 votes, defeating Dhull by more than 34,000 votes. Congress’s candidate, Dharmendra Singh Dhull, received only 12,440 votes, placing them far behind the competition. This marked another major defeat for the party, which had been unable to regain its foothold in the constituency for years.
Looking back further, in the 2014 assembly elections, INLD’s Dharmendra Singh Dhull won with 54,632 votes, defeating Congress’s Dharmendra Singh Dhull by about 33,000 votes. The 2009 election saw INLD again triumph, with Parminder Singh Dhull defeating Congress’s Sher Singh. Over the past three elections, INLD and JJP have dominated Julana, leaving Congress struggling to make headway. Despite this, Congress remains hopeful that Phogat’s popularity, especially within the Jat community, could shift the balance in their favor.
Julana’s social and caste dynamics will play a key role in the upcoming election. The constituency is heavily rural, with 92.2% rural voters, and has a strong Jat community presence, comprising 50% of the population. Vinesh Phogat herself belongs to the Jat community, and her in-laws are based in Julana’s Bakhta Kheda village, giving her a strong local connection. In recent years, the Dalit community’s support for Congress has also increased, further boosting Phogat’s prospects. Historically, the Jat vote has leaned towards INLD and JJP, but both parties are currently weakened, and Phogat’s candidacy could attract significant support from both the Jat and Dalit communities.
The BJP, on the other hand, is struggling to find a strong candidate to oppose Phogat. Ever since her candidacy was announced, the BJP has been in disarray, unsure of who could effectively challenge her. Phogat enjoys widespread support not only from the local community but also from the wrestling fraternity and farmers, further solidifying her position as a strong contender. This could potentially break Congress’s 19-year losing streak in Julana, with Phogat seen as a game-changing candidate.
As Phogat prepares to campaign, with her husband’s family already mobilizing support in Julana, her entry into the political arena is poised to create a major shift in the constituency’s dynamics. Many believe that her candidacy offers Congress its best chance in years to reclaim the seat, making the upcoming election a crucial test for both Phogat and the party.
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