US, Mar 10 : The possible elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader following the death of his father has intensified debate over the direction of the country’s leadership and the consequences for the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Observers suggest the transition was largely anticipated after the US-Israeli air strikes that reportedly killed Ali Khamenei. However, statements by Donald Trump opposing Mojtaba’s leadership have been viewed by analysts as reinforcing support within Iran’s political establishment for his succession.
Critics argue that Washington may be misjudging the internal dynamics of the Islamic Republic. Rather than weakening the system, Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise could consolidate it, strengthening ties between the clerical leadership and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Unlike hopes in some Western capitals for a political transition or a more moderate leadership, analysts say the appointment of a hardline figure could deepen the ideological, military and economic networks that sustain the Iranian system. The IRGC, which holds significant influence in both security operations and commercial sectors, is expected to remain central to this power structure.
Despite heavy bombardment and mounting international pressure, Tehran’s strategy appears focused on endurance rather than rapid confrontation. Experts believe the country aims to outlast the conflict by maintaining internal unity while applying pressure on global energy routes and US allies in the region.
Iran’s defence doctrine has long been shaped by lessons from the Iran–Iraq War, which ended without a decisive victory despite massive casualties. Since then, Iran has prioritised asymmetric warfare capabilities, including missile systems, drone programmes, proxy networks and maritime tactics designed to challenge stronger conventional forces.
These preparations suggest that Tehran anticipated future confrontations with technologically superior adversaries. As a result, its military strategy emphasises resilience, decentralised command structures and prolonged conflict rather than direct battlefield dominance.
The ongoing war also carries wider global implications. Prolonged hostilities could drive oil prices sharply higher and threaten shipping routes, potentially affecting inflation and economic stability worldwide.
For Washington, analysts say the challenge lies in understanding the strategic mindset of Iranian institutions and determining whether it is prepared for a drawn-out confrontation. Without a clear grasp of Tehran’s long-term strategy, they warn, the conflict could escalate into a prolonged struggle with significant geopolitical and economic consequences.