MARCHING TO NEW HEIGHT
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Editorial . . . . . . . . .
Our population is expected to eventually surpass China’s due to India’s faster rate of growth. But it could surprise you how quickly this might occur. According to the World Population Prospects 2022 study from the UN, China may lose its top spot to India as the world’s most populous nation in 2023. The UN estimates also indicate that, although having already started a phase of significant slowing, the world population is anticipated to surpass 8 billion this year. India’s population will reach 1.428 billion on July 1, 2023, which will be just slightly higher than the 1.426 billion figure for China at that time, according to the World Population Prospects 2022 (WPP) report, which was released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) earlier this week. This would propel India to the top of the population rankings, reaching a peak in 2064 when it is anticipated to have 1.697 billion citizens. The population will steadily decline to 1.53 billion by the year 2100. By 2100, China’s population, which is projected to have peaked at 1.426 billion, will have drastically decreased to just 0.77 billion. Population growth and sustainable development have a complicated and multifaceted relationship. It is more challenging to eradicate poverty, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand access to health and education systems as a result of rapid population increase.
Instead, fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals will help to lower fertility rates and slow down the rate of population growth in the world, mainly those linked to health, education, and gender equality. The most recent WPP predictions also indicate that a significant decline in the growth of the world’s population has already begun. On November 15, 2022, it is anticipated to surpass the 8 billion thresholds, and in 2038, the 9 billion threshold is anticipated to be reached. Since 1950, the earliest time for which WPP numbers are available, this is the longest time frame it has taken to add another billion people. There is little doubt that the apparent slowing in the global population numbers hides regional and socioeconomic variations in demographic dynamics. For example, it is predicted that between now and 2050, the population share of less advanced countries and regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Least Developed Countries, will increase by about five percentage points to reach the 20 percent mark, while the population share of Europe and Northern America, the wealthiest regions in the world, is predicted to decline from its current share of 14 percent to likely reach the 10 percent mark. Given that life expectancy has improved throughout the world, the main factor causing variations in population growth rates between nations is variable levels of fertility. While becoming the largest nation in the world would give us international prominence in terms of trivia, it is not an accomplishment. China may have succeeded in converting what was formerly viewed as a liability into an advantage, with its economy obviously on track to surpass that of the United States, but a demographic dividend has so far escaped us. India’s average productivity is still low, and we continue to lack the foundational elements of healthcare and education that would allow all of our people to collectively climb the value-generation curve. However, we must resist any pessimism that leads to demands for enforcing birth control laws. We anticipate a peak and a subsequent reduction in our headcount. Making ensuring that economic involvement is progressively broader is our main challenge.
