DAY OF 8 BILLION

Editorial . . . . . . 

On November 15, the world’s population surpassed eight billion, marking an important turning point in human evolution. This milestone was not reached until 11 years after the seven billion mark was reached. This was made clear in the July 11 publication of the World Population Prospects Report 2022. By 2023, India is anticipated to surpass China in terms of population. A paradoxical scenario is created by rising youth unemployment in stark contrast to the demographic dividend of the nation. For the country to benefit from the demographic dividend, a comprehensive population policy that addresses state-specific challenges is essential. According to projections, the global population would rise by one billion from the 7 billion mark in 2011 to 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9 billion by 2037. This demonstrates that the rate of population increase around the world is slowing down; it will take an additional 15 years to add a billion people, as compared to the 12 years it took to add one billion people starting in 2011. The annual rate of growth starts to slow down as fertility starts to decline. The average fertility rate for the entire world’s population in 2021 was 2.3 births per woman over her lifetime, down from over 5 in 1950. By 2050, it is predicted that global fertility would have further decreased to 2.1 births per woman. In India, between the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-round 4 and NFHS-5, the total fertility rate, or the average number of children per woman, decreased from 2.2 to 2 at the national level. The country’s overall contraceptive prevalence rate has improved significantly from 54% to 67%, and contemporary contraceptive methods are now more widely used in practically all States and Union territories. Additionally, the unmet need for family planning has significantly decreased from 13% to 9%, and the unmet need for spacing, which used to be a serious problem in India, has decreased to less than 4%, showing the success of population control efforts. According to the UN assessment, decreases in fertility over the coming years would only have a small impact on the expansion of the global population between now and 2050 because of the growth momentum ingrained in the current age structures. As the effect of fertility decline on population size accumulates from one generation to the next, it indicates that a fertility decline in the short term can have significant effects on growth in the latter decades of the century. This emphasises the significance of population control measures. The objective is to raise knowledge of the smaller size of families for better living through an improvement in access to high-quality education rather than a coercive population strategy that cannot be enforced or has little influence.

The UN recommends investing in human capital by providing access to healthcare, high-quality education, and chances for gainful employment. This is for nations where a fall in childbearing is opening the door for a demographic dividend. According to figures from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the nation’s jobless rate increased to 7.8% in October after falling to 6.4% in September, the lowest level in the previous four years. According to the CMIE data, there were around 2.2 million less people in the labour force (down from 432 million in September to 429.8 million) and fewer people employed (down from 404.2 million in September to 396.4 million in October 2022). A rise in employment over the winter and a decrease in the unemployment rate can result from fresh sowing during the Rabi season, according to CMIE, which has shown that employment has fallen most in rural areas. To eliminate this employment uncertainty and to capitalise on the demographic dividend for quicker economic growth, the challenge for the nation’s development planners is to increase the number of work opportunities. According to the reports, India’s demographic dividend would reach its pinnacle around 2041, when the proportion of people who are working age, or 20 to 59 years old, is predicted to reach 59%. As a result, job growth should be in line with population estimates since the demographic dividend window will only be open for a very little time.