Exit Polls Favor NC-Congress, But Omar Dismisses Predictions as “Time Pass”
JAMMU/SRINAGAR, Oct 5: Exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections have suggested an advantage for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance, sparking conversations across the political spectrum. While most exit polls forecast a lead for the Congress-NC alliance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains hopeful of a strong performance and the possibility of forming the next government in the Union Territory. National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah, despite the positive projections for his party, downplayed the significance of the exit polls, calling them “just time pass.” He expressed skepticism about their accuracy, referencing the inaccuracy of exit polls during the recent general elections. Abdullah took to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share his views, stating that he was ignoring the noise from media channels and social media, as the only numbers that matter will be revealed on October 8, when the official results are announced.
I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp Etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass.
— Omar Abdullah (@OmarAbdullah) October 5, 2024
Several exit polls have given the NC-Congress alliance an edge, with many predicting that the alliance could emerge as the single-largest group in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. However, BJP leaders remain optimistic, with J&K BJP president Ravinder Raina stating that his party contested the elections with full strength and confidence. Raina highlighted the extensive support received by the BJP during the campaign, noting the involvement of top party leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and party president J P Nadda. According to Raina, the BJP will emerge victorious when the results are announced, and the party is already preparing to begin the process of forming the government.
Raina further emphasized the BJP’s goal to win the elections with the blessings of the people, pointing out the tremendous support the party received during its campaign. He expressed confidence that the BJP would secure enough seats to either form a government independently or in partnership with other like-minded parties. Despite the positive exit poll predictions for the NC-Congress alliance, Raina maintained that the BJP is on track for a strong performance and that the party’s message of development, security, and stability resonated with the electorate.
On the other hand, J&K Congress president Tair Hameed Karra expressed confidence that the Congress-NC alliance was in a comfortable position to form the next government in the Union Territory. Karra stated that the primary objective of this election was to keep the BJP out of power, while also emphasizing the need for the restoration of statehood and guarantees for land and job protections. According to Karra, the people of Jammu and Kashmir have voted for change, seeking redressal of their grievances after years of suffering under what he described as a centralized and authoritarian administration in the Raj Bhavan and Civil Secretariat.
Karra also criticized the BJP’s handling of terrorism, accusing the party of allowing the problem to spread from the Kashmir Valley to the previously peaceful Jammu region. He dismissed accusations from the BJP that the NC and Congress were reviving terrorism, stating that the facts on the ground clearly show a worsening security situation in Jammu over the past decade. Karra further noted that the BJP has failed to explain its governance record to the people, leaving voters with no choice but to demand change through their ballots.
Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by Mehbooba Mufti, has been more reserved in its reaction to the exit polls. Senior PDP leader Naeem Akhtar stated that exit polls are not always reliable and that it was too early to discuss the formation of a government. Akhtar pointed out that actual results could differ significantly from the exit poll predictions, and he stressed that the final numbers would be the true measure of success. When asked whether the PDP would support the NC-Congress alliance if necessary, Akhtar responded that such discussions were premature, though he reminded observers that the PDP remains part of the INDIA alliance, a coalition of opposition parties.
Several exit polls have projected varying outcomes for the different political groups contesting the Jammu and Kashmir elections. The C-Voter-India Today survey predicted that the NC-Congress alliance would secure between 40 and 48 seats in the 90-member Assembly, while putting the BJP at 27 to 32 seats. Other exit polls, such as those conducted by Dainik Bhaskar, Peoples’ Pulse, and Republic-Gulistan, offered similar forecasts, with the NC-Congress alliance consistently leading over the BJP. However, the number of seats won by the PDP and other smaller parties remained uncertain, with projections ranging from 5 to 12 seats for the PDP and between 4 and 16 seats for other candidates.
As the official results will be announced on October 8, the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir remains in a state of suspense. The BJP is determined to secure a strong showing, hoping to capitalize on its robust campaign and the personal involvement of its national leadership. The Congress-NC alliance, however, is optimistic about its prospects, believing that the electorate has sent a clear message of discontent with the BJP’s governance over the past decade.
This election is also viewed as a significant moment for Jammu and Kashmir, as the restoration of statehood, economic development, and security remain at the forefront of voter concerns. For many, the election represents an opportunity to shift away from the policies of the past and toward a new direction that prioritizes the needs of the people. While the exit polls provide some indication of the outcome, all eyes are now on October 8, when the votes will be counted and the future of Jammu and Kashmir’s governance will be decided.
In the lead-up to the results, political parties and their supporters continue to wait with anticipation. The BJP remains hopeful of a strong performance, while the Congress-NC alliance feels confident in its ability to form the next government. The final tally will not only shape the political future of Jammu and Kashmir but also set the tone for how the Union Territory navigates its many challenges in the years to come. Whether the electorate chooses continuity with the BJP or a return to a regional political partnership through the NC-Congress alliance, the stakes in this election are undeniably high.
