Explainer: Elections to five Assemblies, a barometer of popularity of BJP and Congress
Three out of five states will witness a direct flight between the two parties
Chandigarh, October 7 : The Election Commission is expected to announce the dates of elections to five states— Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram —“anytime now”.
According to reports, the EC has taken stock of poll preparedness and held a meeting of observers to finalise the strategy for the smooth conduct of the elections in the five states.
Coming on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections, next year, the results of the five Assemblies are being watched keenly by political parties as well as observers who expect them to provide a “good indicator” of general mood of the voters regarding the prospects of the ruling BJP at the centre and its biggest challenger—the INDIA alliance parties—in 2024.
Currently two states—Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—are ruled by Congress and one (Madhya Pradesh) by BJP. NDA ally Mizo National Front is in power in Mizoram and K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana.
Notably, two (three, if Rajasthan is also counted) are the traditional Hindi heartland states which form the crux of the politics of the two main players – BJP and Congress.
If reports and source-based information is any indication then the two parties which are in direct contest against each-other in three states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh—are burning midnight oil to prepare the perfect winning combinations to outsmart each other in the coming Assembly elections.
Rajasthan—200 seats
While Madhya Pradesh is a state considered closest to BJP’s heart given its deep-rooted association with ideological fountainhead the RSS, Rajasthan is easily one of the interesting states in these elections, electorally.
In 2018, Congress managed to form the government headed by Ashok Gehlot following a tough fight with the ruling BJP. Currently both sides, Congress as well as BJP, are dealing with multiple issues—factionalism, internal strife and chief ministerial aspirants.
Other parties in the fray include Bahujan Samajwadi Party, Bhartiya Tribal Party, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and RLD.
While the main contest is between incumbent Congress and opposition BJP, the smaller players have the capability of acting as spoilers.
Meanwhile, Congress is also dealing with the anti-incumbency factor in the state that traditionally follows the revolving door syndrome.
Madhya Pradesh—230 seats
BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the chief minister of the state which had given an edge to the Congress in a neck-and-neck in 2018, helping it form the government.
However, just before the country locked down for the Covid-19 pandemic, BJP and Chouhan managed to engineer a coup with the help of the then Chief Minister Kamal Nath’s former colleague Jyotiraditya Scindia.
Scindia is now in the BJP and among the many aspirants for the CM post.
The saffron party is aware of the anti-incumbency factor against Chouhan and has fielded several ministers and MPs in the state.
Like Rajasthan, in Madhya Pradesh BJP also a power struggle is going on, making the situation somewhat better for the Congress which seems to be rallying behind Kamal Nath for now.
Madhya Pradesh, too, is a direct contest between BJP and Congress and an interesting state to watch out for. Other parties in the fray include regional players like BSP and Samajwadi Party. The Gondwana Gantantra Party is also active in the Gwalior-Chambal region.
Chhattisgarh—90 seats
Congress’s Bhupesh Bhagel has managed to hold since he wrested Chhattisgarh from BJP with a convincing margin in 2018, winning 68 seats.
The state is also a direct fight between Congress and BJP but there are other parties in the fray like BSP and Janta Congress Chhattisgarh which won five seats in the last elections.
In Chhattisgarh, the fight is also for tribal votes and seats reserved for STs which is where the relevance of players like JCC and Hamar Raj Party comes in.
Telangana—119 seats
Telengana is another interesting state to watch out for so far as public mood in South India is concerned. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi) is in power in the state which the BJP has been eyeing after a good run in the 2019 general elections.
Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, who led the agenda of creating a separate Telangana state, is also eyeing a national role for himself and his party in 2024. He has not joined the INDIA alliance.
Others in the fight include TRS’ ally AIMIM, Congress, BSP and Left parties.
Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi created a buzz saying that BRS wanted to join the NDA after the 2020 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections, triggering a major war of words between the two parties.
Notably, not only has KCR not been receiving PM Modi at the airport as per the protocol, he is also one of his most vociferous critics.
However, according to Congress, BRS was “cosying up to the BJP” after “striking a deal with it”.
After the arrest of senior AAP leader Manish Sisodia, the buzz in Telangana political circles was that KCR’s daughter K Kavitha would soon follow suit in the Delhi liquor policy case, which did not happen even though in the meantime another senior AAP leader Sanjay Singh found himself behind the bars.
Observers believe BJP “overhauled” its Telengana strategy following surveys indicating that Congress was closing on BRS.
“KCR’s son KTR’s meetings with senior BJP leaders Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh in Delhi indicated a truce between the rivals to fight a common enemy Congress. The impression was that in the bargain, the money laundering charge against Kavitha had been put on the back burner,” they say.
Mizoram –40 seats
MNF president Zoramthanga is the Chief Minister of Mizoram, a Christian-majority state.
It has been a part of the NDA since 2014 when it formed an alliance with other parties, including BJP, to contest the lone seat in the state.
Congress and Zoram People’s Movement are among the other players in the state.
