New GDP Series Boosts Data Credibility; Experts See Stable FY26 Growth Outlook

New Delhi: India’s economy grew at 7.8 per cent in Q3 FY26 (Oct-Dec 2025), reflecting continued resilience despite a moderation from 8.4 per cent in Q2, according to new estimates under the updated 2022-23 base year GDP series. Economists and industry leaders hailed the revised framework for improving data credibility and providing a more accurate picture of sectoral performance.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said the slowdown was largely expected and driven by agriculture and non-manufacturing industries, including mining, electricity, and construction. She added, “The Second Advance Estimate for FY2026 projects GDP growth at a strong 7.6 per cent, supported by robust performance in manufacturing, services, private consumption, and capital formation.”

Manufacturing GVA expanded in double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter, highlighting sustained industrial strength.

Rajeev Juneja, President of PHDCCI, noted that real GDP is now estimated at Rs 322.58 lakh crore in FY2025-26, up from Rs 299.89 lakh crore in FY2024-25. “The revised GDP framework enhances the credibility and analytical utility of India’s national accounts, offering policymakers, investors, and businesses a more reliable view of economic activity,” he said.

Sidharth Chowdhry, Managing Director of Dalcore, emphasized that switching to the 2022-23 base year captures the evolving economic structure. “Granular datasets such as GST filings and corporate financials allow more precise measurement of construction and development activity, enabling developers and investors to make informed decisions,” he added.

Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research at Elara Capital, highlighted strong sectoral trends, with manufacturing GVA in double digits, secondary sector growth near 10 per cent, and trade, hotels, transport, and communication reporting close to low double-digit growth. She noted that “integration of GST data, improved coverage of unincorporated sectors, double deflation in agriculture and manufacturing, and better benchmarking strengthen GDP data quality.”

Kirthi Chilukuri, Founder & Managing Director of Stonecraft Group, remarked that the base-year revision “offers a more accurate reflection of economic realities, especially for real estate, where better measurement of construction, financial performance, and consumption trends will guide market decisions.”