NC-Led Alliance Set to Secure Majority in J&K Rajya Sabha Elections, BJP Eyes Single Seat

JAMMU, Oct 13: The National Conference (NC), in alliance with the Congress and a group of Independent MLAs, is positioned to secure three out of the four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir in the upcoming elections. The Election Commission of India (ECI) is expected to announce these elections shortly after the newly elected MLAs take their oath. Despite having only 29 MLAs, the BJP is likely to win one seat; however, if five additional MLAs are nominated by the Union Home Ministry before the elections, the BJP’s strength could rise to 34, further consolidating its position.

Officials indicate that the NC-led alliance, with its current strength of 55 MLAs, has a strong hold over three of the four seats, leaving one for the BJP, which could retain this seat even with its present strength. This dynamic is reminiscent of the 2019 Rajya Sabha elections, where the PDP-BJP alliance, with a combined 54 seats (28 PDP and 26 BJP), secured three seats—two for the PDP and one for the BJP. The fourth seat was won by Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress, supported by the NC-Congress alliance, which then had 27 MLAs (15 from NC and 12 from Congress). Smaller parties and Independent MLAs played a crucial role in supporting Azad.

The Election Commission has historically issued three notifications for Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir—one covering two seats and two separate elections for the remaining seats. If this pattern is maintained, the two individually contested seats are likely to be won by the NC-led alliance, which currently holds a significant advantage. The remaining two seats, which involve a combined election, could be split between the NC-led alliance and the BJP, provided the alliance retains its support base of 55 MLAs.

Given that these seats have remained vacant for over three and a half years, the Election Commission might issue a notification soon after the oath-taking ceremony, allowing the newly sworn-in MLAs to participate in the voting process. There are also speculations that the Union Home Ministry may nominate five additional MLAs to the Legislative Assembly, ensuring that the BJP secures at least one seat. This would strengthen the BJP’s standing, particularly in a region where coalition dynamics have historically shaped the political landscape.

Amidst these developments, reports suggest that Dr. Farooq Abdullah, the president of the National Conference, may be fielded as a candidate for one of the Rajya Sabha seats, even though he did not contest the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections. The NC currently has 42 MLAs, supported by one AAP MLA and five Independents from the Jammu division, bringing its total to 48. The CPM MLA, M.Y. Tarigami, is also part of the alliance, along with six Congress MLAs, bringing the coalition’s overall strength to 55.

Political observers are keenly watching to see if the NC leadership will cede one Rajya Sabha seat to the Congress, given that the Congress has just six MLAs compared to the NC’s 48. This will test the alliance’s solidarity, as it may indicate the extent of NC’s commitment to a coalition arrangement or a preference to dominate the political narrative.

The last Rajya Sabha election for Jammu and Kashmir’s four seats occurred in February 2015 when the BJP-PDP coalition dominated the proceedings. PDP’s Fayaz Ahmad Mir and Nazir Ahmad Laway, along with BJP’s Shamsher Singh Manhas, won three seats, while Ghulam Nabi Azad won the fourth seat with support from the NC-Congress alliance. BJP’s Chander Mohan Sharma lost that contest. The four members completed their terms in February 2021, leaving Jammu and Kashmir without Rajya Sabha representation due to the absence of an elected Assembly.

Looking back, Jammu and Kashmir had previously gone without Rajya Sabha representation from April 1994 to October 1996. However, this was resolved after Dr. Farooq Abdullah led the NC to victory in the 1996 Assembly elections, forming a government that enabled Dr. Karan Singh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Saif-ud-Din Soz, and Sharif-ud-Din Shariq to secure seats in the Rajya Sabha in November 1996. From that point until February 2021, the state had uninterrupted representation in the upper house. The 2015 election was historic, as it marked the BJP’s first Rajya Sabha win from Jammu and Kashmir.

The National Conference’s alliance and its current strength reflect its strategic intent to reclaim political dominance in Jammu and Kashmir. The party has a legacy of holding power in the region, particularly through the leadership of the Abdullah family. In light of the political void left by the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and the subsequent absence of an elected Assembly, the NC has positioned itself as a critical player in the political discourse of Jammu and Kashmir. The Rajya Sabha elections provide an opportunity for the NC to assert its influence, not only by securing seats but by building coalitions that could shape legislative developments in the Union Territory.

However, the party’s willingness to share power within the alliance will be closely scrutinized. With 48 MLAs compared to Congress’s six, the NC holds a significant majority within the coalition. If the NC decides to hold all three Rajya Sabha seats for itself, it could raise questions about its commitment to coalition politics and its desire to maintain a united front against the BJP. A more accommodating approach, by leaving one seat for the Congress, could strengthen the alliance’s stability and unity in the long term.

The BJP, on the other hand, continues to maneuver strategically, ensuring it retains a presence in the Rajya Sabha. Even with its current strength of 29 MLAs, it is positioned to secure at least one seat, and the possibility of additional MLAs being nominated could further secure its political future in Jammu and Kashmir. This move by the BJP illustrates its intent to maintain a foothold in the region’s politics, despite the opposition’s combined strength.

The National Conference, therefore, stands at a crossroads. It can choose to dominate its coalition partners or seek a collaborative approach that ensures long-term stability and influence in Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape. The outcome of these elections and the decisions made by the NC leadership will reveal the party’s approach to governance and coalition management in a rapidly changing political environment.