Drone Strikes Shake Moscow and Kyiv: Unleashing Chaos in the Era of Drone Warfare

01-06-2023 : Moscow, Russia and Kyiv, Ukraine – In a disturbing escalation of the global drone warfare phenomenon, both Moscow and Kyiv have fallen victim to a series of devastating drone strikes, raising serious concerns about international law. On the early morning of May 30, 2023, at least eight drone attacks ravaged Moscow, leaving behind a trail of destruction and numerous civilian casualties. This follows Russia’s recent assault on residential buildings in Ukraine, where a wave of drone strikes took innocent lives.

While Ukraine has distanced itself from the strikes on Moscow, Russia’s government has branded the attacks as a “terrorist act.” The war-torn region has been plagued by the presence of unmanned aerial vehicles, known as drones, for over a year, causing anxiety and inflicting substantial harm in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both nations have deployed drones to locate targets and deploy explosives, among other purposes.

Today, drones have become ubiquitous in various conflicts worldwide and have expanded their utility beyond military applications, including package delivery, weather tracking, and recreational pursuits. These unmanned aircraft ranges from small consumer quadcopters to sophisticated remotely piloted warplanes, with militaries across the globe harnessing their power.

As an expert in public diplomacy and foreign policy and a former United States undersecretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs, I emphasize the critical need for a global understanding of drones and their proliferation. The risks of warfare, terrorism, and accidental drone clashes demand heightened awareness.

The United States stands among more than 100 nations employing drones in times of conflict. Unfortunately, terrorists have also capitalized on these relatively low-cost weapons, causing widespread civilian damage. Notably, global consumer drone shipments surpassed five million units in 2020 and are projected to exceed seven million by 2025. Sales of drones have surged by a staggering 57% from 2021 to 2022, signaling an alarming trend.

The exponential rise in drone purchases over the past few years has given rise to a concerning reality: there are few restraints for buyers, resulting in an uncontrolled environment where anything goes. Each country operates drones according to its own discretion, without being accountable to any international authority governing drone usage. Regrettably, there is a lack of comprehensive regulations regarding the rules of the sky.

Countries deploying drones have distinct interests in their acquisition and deployment. China, for instance, has increasingly employed sophisticated drones for covert surveillance, particularly in international waters to monitor disputed islands in the South China Sea. China’s expanding drone program has influenced other nations, such as the United States, to invest more in this technology. Turkey possesses a highly advanced drone, the Bayraktar TB2, capable of carrying laser-guided bombs, conveniently transportable on a flatbed truck. The United Arab Emirates imports drones from China and Turkey to monitor warlords in Yemen and Libya, anticipating potential conflict. South Korea is even contemplating establishing a specialized drone unit following a recent North Korean drone incursion that went unanswered, forcing the country to scramble fighter jets and fire warning shots.

Amidst this rapidly evolving landscape, the absence of internationally agreed-upon regulations poses a significant challenge. While international law prohibits the use of armed force unless authorized by the United Nations Security Council or for self-defense, drones can be deployed legally for counterterrorism operations, surveillance, and other non-self-defense purposes, ultimately blurring the lines and potentially leading to military conflicts.

Efforts to establish comprehensive standards and laws governing drone usage have faced obstacles for various reasons. Governments, driven by national sovereignty concerns, hesitate to disclose drone data, aiming to protect their technological edge and retain market dominance. The United States has grappled with the delicate balance of drone warfare as it engaged in overseas operations, with instances of unintended casualties and damage casting a shadow on its military use of drones. Despite the importance of public opinion on the matter, research in this area remains limited, making it challenging to garner support for drone deployment.

The perils posed by drones are undeniably real. Numerous experts, myself included, believe that relying on individual countries to make decisions on drones, without a framework guiding transfers, exports, imports, and usage, is unsafe. There is an urgent need for enhanced international monitoring of drone incursions and greater transparency regarding the outcomes of drone attacks. As the technology continues to evolve, drones can communicate and collaborate, forming formidable and autonomous aerial armies with the potential for catastrophic accidents. Their agility, enabled by artificial intelligence, makes them elusive and challenging to track. Drone detection also poses a formidable challenge, especially in a battlefield context, as determining the origin and operator of a fast-moving drone is no easy feat. Advanced radar detection systems are being developed to improve accuracy and locate drone operators.

In the face of these pressing challenges, the world must forge new and consistent rules for drone usage in the decade ahead. The establishment of international norms and regulations, coupled with rigorous monitoring and transparency, is imperative to mitigate the risks associated with drone warfare. Failure to act promptly could perpetuate a dangerous status quo, with grave consequences for global peace and security.