J&K’s Economic Growth Set at 7.06% for 2024-25, Nominal GSDP to Expand by 11.19% Amid Strong Fiscal Reforms : Economic Survey

Jammu, March 6th : Jammu, March 6: The economy of Jammu and Kashmir is poised for significant growth in the fiscal year 2024-25, with the Economic Survey Report projecting a real growth rate of 7.06 percent and a nominal Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) increase of 11.19 percent. The report, presented by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, underscores the region’s economic trajectory, highlighting structural advancements, sectoral performance, and key fiscal indicators that reinforce economic resilience and policy effectiveness.

The size of Jammu and Kashmir’s economy, measured by nominal GSDP, is estimated to reach approximately Rs 2.65 lakh crore in 2024-25, while its real GSDP is expected to stand at Rs 1.45 lakh crore. The region has demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.89 percent in real terms from 2019-20 to 2024-25, marking a higher trajectory than the 4.81 percent recorded between 2011-12 and 2019-20. This consistent growth underscores the effectiveness of policy interventions, infrastructural development, and economic diversification initiatives undertaken over the years.

Per capita income at current prices is anticipated to reach Rs 1,54,703 in 2024-25, reflecting a 10.6 percent growth, although it remains lower than the national per capita income of Rs 2,00,162. A comparative analysis of per capita income growth across northern states reveals that Jammu and Kashmir has outpaced key economies, with an 8.3 percent CAGR between 2019-20 and 2023-24, surpassing Punjab (6.22 percent), Delhi (6.74 percent), and Himachal Pradesh (6 percent). This trend highlights the accelerated pace of income expansion in the region relative to neighboring states, indicating a strong post-pandemic economic recovery and increased productivity across sectors.

Jammu and Kashmir’s contribution to national GDP stands at 0.8 percent, in proportion to its 0.98 percent share of the total population. Sectoral analysis indicates a continued shift towards the tertiary sector, which is expected to contribute 61.70 percent to Gross State Value Added (GSVA) in 2024-25, followed by the primary and secondary sectors at 20.00 percent and 18.30 percent, respectively. This structural composition mirrors national trends where services play a dominant role in economic expansion, while agriculture and industry remain integral to balanced growth and employment generation.

Inflationary pressures have remained relatively contained, with consumer price inflation in Jammu and Kashmir increasing marginally from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.5 percent in 2024. In contrast, national inflation figures saw a decline from 5.7 percent to 5.0 percent during the same period. The region’s inflation rate has ranged between 3.8 percent and 4.5 percent from 2019 to 2024, compared to the national range of 3.7 percent to 5.0 percent, reflecting effective price stabilization measures and supply-side management policies.

Revenue performance has shown robust momentum, with total revenue collection reaching Rs 15,737.80 crore in the first nine months of FY25, achieving 77 percent of the previous year’s total revenue of Rs 20,333.55 crore. The contribution of non-tax revenue to total revenue has risen to 32 percent, driven by an increase in power tariff collections, which now constitute 67 percent of non-tax revenue, up from 56 percent in FY22. Tax revenue collection reached Rs 10,624.09 crore during the same period, comprising 76 percent of the total Rs 13,903.22 crore realized in FY24. The revenue structure indicates diversification, with notable growth in vehicle taxes (96 percent), power tariffs (67 percent), GST (36 percent), water user charges (33 percent), and excise duties (14 percent).

Expenditure patterns reveal a balanced fiscal approach, with revenue expenditure in the first nine months of FY25 standing at Rs 49,828 crore, or 75 percent of the Rs 66,621 crore recorded in FY24. Capital expenditure reached Rs 11,538 crore, reflecting 51 percent of the Rs 22,531 crore total capital outlay in FY24. The sustained focus on capital investment is expected to bolster infrastructure development, enhance public services, and stimulate private sector participation in key growth sectors.

Labor market indicators depict an encouraging trend, with the unemployment rate on usual status declining from 6.7 percent in 2019-20 to 6.1 percent in 2023-24. Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and Worker Population Ratio (WPR) have risen to 64.3 percent and 60.4 percent, respectively, reflecting an expansion in employment opportunities and economic activity. Self-employment initiatives have gained traction, with 40,778 units established under various schemes, generating employment for approximately 1.16 lakh youth. Furthermore, 35.28 lakh unorganized workers have been registered on the e-SHRAM portal as of November 2024, facilitating targeted welfare measures and financial inclusion.

The banking sector has demonstrated improved asset quality, with gross non-performing assets (NPAs) declining from 5.71 percent in December 2022 to 4.13 percent in March 2024. This decline underscores enhanced credit discipline, improved recovery mechanisms, and a stable financial environment conducive to investment and entrepreneurship.

Agricultural output has recorded notable progress, with total food crop production increasing by 7.12 percent from 19,515 thousand quintals to 20,904 thousand quintals over the past year. Vegetable production has reached 520 thousand quintals in 2023-24, reflecting a shift towards self-reliance in food supply. The region’s agricultural landscape is transitioning towards high-value crops, organic vegetables, and exotic varieties, supported by initiatives like the Holistic Agriculture Development Plan. Under this program, Rs 5,013 crore will be invested across 29 projects over five years, with an expected addition of Rs 28,000 crore to GSDP and the creation of 2.88 lakh sustainable jobs. The plan is set to benefit 13 lakh families and equip 2.5 lakh youth with skills through the establishment of 19,000 new enterprises, fostering entrepreneurship and rural development.