Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Move to Belarus: Implications for Regional Power Dynamics
28-06-2023 : Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has apparently confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private army, has relocated there. The 62-year-old Prigozhin was a part of some of the bloodiest fighting that took place during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and was also connected to an armed uprising against the Kremlin. But as part of a settlement that put a stop to the mutiny in Russia, he was able to avoid punishment and take sanctuary in Belarus.
President Lukashenko stated that Prigozhin and some of his troops are welcome to stay in Belarus for some time at their own expense. The Russian Defence Ministry has confirmed that preparations are underway for Wagner to hand over its heavy weapons to the Russian military. Prigozhin had previously announced that his troops would sign contracts to serve under the command of the Russian military by a July 1 deadline.
Russian authorities have also announced the closure of a criminal investigation into the uprising and stated that no charges would be pressed against Prigozhin or his followers, thanks to the negotiated deal. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at potential charges of financial wrongdoing against an affiliated organization owned by Prigozhin. He mentioned that Prigozhin’s Concord Group earned a significant amount of money from a military food contract, while Wagner received substantial funds for wages and other expenses.
Prigozhin, known for his lucrative catering contracts with the Russian government, was found with a substantial amount of money in his St. Petersburg office during a police search. He claimed that the money was intended to pay the families of soldiers. Despite Putin branding Prigozhin and his fighters as traitors, they were not prosecuted after the rebellion ended, in contrast to how anti-government protesters have been treated in Russia.
These recent events pose a significant challenge to Putin’s hold on power, particularly amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. Putin has attempted to project stability and assert authority through public addresses and meetings with military officials. Lukashenko, who has relied on Russian support, portrayed the uprising as a clash between Prigozhin and Russian Defence Secretary Shoigu, urging Putin not to overreact and escalate the conflict with Wagner.
The details of the deal between Prigozhin and the Kremlin have not been disclosed, but Putin has provided certain guarantees to Prigozhin to avoid a worst-case scenario. Some Russian war bloggers and activists have expressed outrage at the lack of punishment for the Wagner mercenaries who killed Russian airmen. Prigozhin expressed regret for the deaths but claimed that the troops fired in self-defense.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, giving a safe haven in Belarus might potentially be a trap since the split between Putin and Prigozhin may be too deep to mend. Wagner’s presence in Belarus does not worry Lukashenko, but opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is worried about the danger it poses to neighbouring nations’ sovereignty.
The circumstances surrounding Prigozhin and his move to Belarus complicate the already complex tensions and power struggles in the area. In the next months, it will be interesting to examine how this development affects the dynamics between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.
